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中英文对照外文翻译文献 (文档含英文原文和中文翻译) 原文: Project Risk Analysis Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 About this compendium This course compendium is to be used in the course “Risikostyring is projector”. The focus will be on the following topics: ? Risk identification ? Risk structuring ? Risk modeling in the light of a time schedule and a cost model 1 ? Risk follows up We will also discuss elements related to decision analysis where risk is involved, and use of life cycle cost and life cycle profit models. The course compendium comprises a large number of exercises, and it is recommended to do most of the exercises in order to get a good understanding of the topics and methods described. A separate MS Excel program, pRisk.xls has been developed in order to assist numerical calculations and to conduct Monte Carlo simulation. 1.2 Definitions Aleatory uncertainty Variation of quantities in a population. We sometimes use the word variability rather than aleatory uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty Lack of knowledge about the “world”, and observable quantities in particular. Dependency The relation between the sequences of the activities in a project. Observable quantity A quantity expressing a state of the “world”, i.e. a quantity of the physical reality or nature, that is unknown at the time of the analysis but will, if the system being analyzed is actually implemented, take some value in the future, and possibly become known. Parameter We use the term parameter in two ways in this report. The main use of a parameter is that it is a quantity that is a part of the risk analysis models, and for which we assign numerical values. The more academic definition of a parameter used in a probability 2 statement about an observable quantity, X, is that a parameter is a construct where the value of the parameter is the limiting value where we are not able to saturate our understanding about the observable quantity X whatsoever new information we could get hold of. Parameter estimate The numeric value we assess to a parameter. Probability A measure of uncertainty of an event. Risk Risk is defined as the answer to the three questions [14]: i) what can go wrong? ii) How likely is it? And if it goes wrong, iii) what are the consequences? To describe the risk is a scenario Risk acceptance A decision to accept a risk. Risk acceptance criterion A reference by which risk is assessed to be acceptable or unacceptable. Schedule A plan which specifies the start and finalization point of times

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